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Технический анализ рынка Forex от FX Global Hedge Fund

Eur/Usd

Краткосрочный тип рынка (2 дня - 2 недели) - тренд вверх
Стадия движения - вялое движение
Циклический анализ - за две сессии до вершины
Наиболее значимые уровни:
1.2360 - пробитие указывает на нормальное продолжение тренда вверх
1.2250 - разворот

По циклам складывается такое впечатление, что разворот будет близок к выходу данных по безработице и данные будут восприняты очень положительно для доллара. Я часто замечал, что тех анализ опережает фундаментальные факторы, посмотрим будет ли так и в этот раз.

Gbp/Usd

Краткосрочный тип рынка (2 дня - 2 недели) - тренд вверх/флэт
Стадия движения - вялое движение
Циклический анализ - пик цикла
Наиболее значимые уровни:
1.8100 - пробитие указывает на нормальное продолжение тренда вверх
1.7900 - разворот

Usd/Jpy

Краткосрочный тип рынка (2 дня - 2 недели) - флэт
Стадия движения - ???
Циклический анализ - пик цикла
Наиболее значимые уровни:
111.00 - пробитие указывает на возобновление краткосрочного тренда вверх
109.00 - пробитие указывает на возобновление краткосрочного тренда вниз

Usd/Cad

Краткосрочный тип рынка (2 дня - 2 недели) - ???
Стадия движения - ???
Циклический анализ - движение вверх
Наиболее значимые уровни:
1.2050
1.1850

Комментарии аналитиков:

Tim Clayton, analyst at Investica.

Investica - "Доллар немного ослабил позиции после того, как были опубликованы более, чем неутешительные новости по заказам на товары длительного пользования и рынку недвижимости. Валюта коснулась минимальной отметки 1.2275 и, после отката до 1.2235, немного вернулась от части благодаря влиянию объемов покупок хеджевыми фондами. Затем бакс опять упал уровня 1.2270. "

Nas Nijjar and Enis Mehmet, analyst at CMC Markets.

CMC Markets - "Не смотря на комментарии Федерального правительства о том, что инфляционное давление сейчас требует особого внимания – особенно посредством использования более агрессивно политик сжатия – доллар овернайт пошел вниз. Сильное давление последовало за очередным подъемом цен на рынке энергоносителей и разворот на понижение заказов длительного пользования. В результате, ФОМК пытается теперь подойти к вопросу несколько поделикатнее, учитывая, что на горизонте не намечено ближайшее понижение цен на нефть."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "Сегодняшние новости, не смотря на двусмысленное влияние на доллара, должно помочь убедить рынок в том, что Федеральное правительство намерено продолжить постепенное повышение ставки, укрепляя таким образом национальную валюту. Бакс может получить неплохую поддержку по результатам сегодняшнего аукциона. 2-годовые бумаги Казначейства будут проданы на сумму около $20 млрд., что может привлечь большее количество непрямых покупателей (e.g. внешних центральных банков), чем на предыдущие два."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "Единая валюта пошла на повышение против доллара на сегодняшних торгах – пробившись через линию сопротивления $1.2250 и пройдя до уровня 1.2278 – сразу после опубликования данных по товарам длительного пользования, которые оказались значительно меньше планируемых. Хотя неплохие данные по рынку недвижимости смогли помочь доллару не упасть на самый низ, евро по-прежнему остается на максимальных значениях в зоне."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "На Йену придавили сверху по паре против американского доллара в основном на спекуляциям по повышению цен на энергоносители. В результате рынок увидел значительно больший дефицит торгового баланса Японии. Конечные данные по показателю должны выйти сегодня вечером. Дефицит, вероятнее всего будет снижен до отметки Y750.0 млрд в июле, по сравнению с Y869.7 млрд в июне."

Next Fed boss? Lots of gossip

Tim Clayton, analyst at Investica.

Investica - "Доллар немного ослабил позиции после того, как были опубликованы более, чем неутешительные новости по заказам на товары длительного пользования и рынку недвижимости. Валюта коснулась минимальной отметки 1.2275 и, после отката до 1.2235, немного вернулась от части благодаря влиянию объемов покупок хеджевыми фондами. Затем бакс опять упал уровня 1.2270. "

Nas Nijjar and Enis Mehmet, analyst at CMC Markets.

CMC Markets - "Не смотря на комментарии Федерального правительства о том, что инфляционное давление сейчас требует особого внимания – особенно посредством использования более агрессивно политик сжатия – доллар овернайт пошел вниз. Сильное давление последовало за очередным подъемом цен на рынке энергоносителей и разворот на понижение заказов длительного пользования. В результате, ФОМК пытается теперь подойти к вопросу несколько поделикатнее, учитывая, что на горизонте не намечено ближайшее понижение цен на нефть."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "Сегодняшние новости, не смотря на двусмысленное влияние на доллара, должно помочь убедить рынок в том, что Федеральное правительство намерено продолжить постепенное повышение ставки, укрепляя таким образом национальную валюту. Бакс может получить неплохую поддержку по результатам сегодняшнего аукциона. 2-годовые бумаги Казначейства будут проданы на сумму около $20 млрд., что может привлечь большее количество непрямых покупателей (e.g. внешних центральных банков), чем на предыдущие два."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "Единая валюта пошла на повышение против доллара на сегодняшних торгах – пробившись через линию сопротивления $1.2250 и пройдя до уровня 1.2278 – сразу после опубликования данных по товарам длительного пользования, которые оказались значительно меньше планируемых. Хотя неплохие данные по рынку недвижимости смогли помочь доллару не упасть на самый низ, евро по-прежнему остается на максимальных значениях в зоне."

Ezechiel Copic, analyst at MG Financial Group.

MG Financial Group - "На Йену придавили сверху по паре против американского доллара в основном на спекуляциям по повышению цен на энергоносители. В результате рынок увидел значительно больший дефицит торгового баланса Японии. Конечные данные по показателю должны выйти сегодня вечером. Дефицит, вероятнее всего будет снижен до отметки Y750.0 млрд в июле, по сравнению с Y869.7 млрд в июне."

Gold –Where To From Here?

In August 2003, Pierre Lassonde, president of the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont Mining, said "The US dollar has enormous fundamental problems and the only way we believe that they are going to be addressed is through more liquidity in the system. They ultimately translate into reflation and higher gold prices.

"The US is running a US$550bn trade deficit mostly against China, Japan, the European community, and it is unsustainable. Basically, every day the rest of the world is putting 70% of their savings into the United States, so when you think about that it is not sustainable, so therefore the dollar has to go down for that to stop and that is good for gold."

At that time, gold was trading at US$360/oz. Pierre’s tip was that gold would rally to US$452/oz, and boy was he spot on. In December last year, gold hit the mark, and aside from a couple of extra dollars more, the price bounced hard off the ceiling and proceeded to enter a period of range trading (see chart). But with the global economy looking strong, and the US dollar seemingly likewise, the question now is: where to from here?

ABN Amro Morgans economists noted earlier in the month that treasury securities held in custody at the Federal Reserve on behalf of foreign official institutions have grown by only US$25bn so far this year, after an increase of more than US$200bn in 2004. Data from the Treasury International capital system also suggest an ebbing demand for treasury securities from foreign official investors during the first five months of the year.

This, suggests ABN, means that Central Banks are no longer supporting the US dollar. Only private investors are still supporting the US dollar, and they are, in ABN’s view, yet to realise they’re alone.

The combination of US deficit and US dollar was what led Pierre Lassonde to make his prescient statement two years ago. To the same end, ABN models what the analysts deem to be the "real" US dollar gold price. When the economists update their model of the real US dollar gold price, they look not so much at the foreign demand for US Treasury Bonds, but how rapidly they are being supplied. They look at the budget deficit of the US government.

ABN’s economists note the US budget deficit has worsened from a surplus of 2.4% of GDP in 2000 to a deficit of 3.6% of GDP in 2004. That is a worsening of 6% of GDP. This is the worst deterioration in peace time that the US budget has seen since 1929.In 2005, the forward estimates of the White House Office of Management & Budget suggest that the US budget deficit is actually improving, notes ABN. The budget deficit should decrease from 3.6% of GDP last year to around 2.7% of GDP this year, 2.6% of GDP next year and 1.7% the year after that. The reason that is happening is because of increasing corporate profits.

However, the economists’ model of the US dollar gold price indicates that the appropriate level of the gold price is not determined by where the budget deficit is this year - it is determined by where the budget deficit was last year. On this basis, the model is suggesting the appropriate price for gold now is US$484/oz, and that’s around US$40 plus higher than the current level. (See chart in magazine)

To home in on the timing of the requisite rally, ABN suggests it is more likely that the US dollar will follow its normal seasonal pattern. On average over the last 10 years, and particularly in the last five, the US dollar has tended to strengthen between February and September and then fall sharply between October and January. That means that the next major window for US dollar weakness, and therefore gold price strength, should be between October this year and January next year. Says ABN "It is likely (but not certain) we will reach appropriate value by the time we get to January next year".

Non-committed predictions aside, Fortis Metals Monthly notes the investment community lost interest in gold for much of July. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed three straight weeks of decline to 19th July in the speculative longs on Comex (gold futures), which were then 236t lower than the previous month. This was accompanied by a $16/oz fall in the price. However, the price rose later in the month which may have signalled a renewed burst of buying, Fortis suggests.

The European Central Bank sold another 15t of gold meaning that just 23t were outstanding from this first year of the second round of the European Gold Agreement, under which signatories limit their sales of official sector gold reserves to 500t a year. (In the mean time, the Bank of Belgium has announced it sold 30t over July and August, which means the amount outstanding is less still). Thus, says Fortis, August and September could see a real drought of central bank gold, and this could be strongly supportive for the gold price.

Not everyone, however, is quite so barred up about the gold price. The record oil prices of recent days are cited by some as a good reason to buy gold, says Commonwealth Research. The economists have one problem with this: oil prices don’t appear to be having an inflationary impact, and even if they may yet do, there is little to suggest that gold’s role as an inflation hedge works any more. Since March 2001, USD gold has risen by almost 70% but US inflation has declined in net terms. (See chart in magazine)

Commonwealth still suspects that currency moves are the best indicator to future movements in gold, with portfolio plays an increasingly important part of gold trading. So that leaves the question: where to the US dollar?

Commonwealth’s view is that over the next twelve months, the prospect of roughly 75bps worth of Fed Fund rate hikes, but very little action by either the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, will tend to be US dollar supportive. The greenback’s upside will be limited by ongoing under-performance of US assets. So the dollar is likely to track within a 10% range of its current level against the major currencies, Commonwealth suggests. Under these circumstances, US dollar gold should also be relatively steady after the strong swings of the past nine years.

The marginal producers will be more inclined to hedge production rather than take their chances, says Commonwealth. The global hedge book has been substantially reduced over the past few years, and de-hedging is unlikely to be able to provide anywhere near the same stimulus that it has in the past few years.

Commonwealth also notes China’s currency move in the second half of July is a positive for Chinese gold demand, as it has made gold cheaper in yuan terms. The economists expect a further modest appreciation in the yuan over the coming eighteen months, and this will add to the fuel provided by rising Chinese incomes and deregulation of the Chinese gold industry. The move can do nothing but help the gold price modestly, Commonwealth suggests.

The upshot of all of this is that Commonwealth believes gold is likely to trade within a US$390-455/oz range. Such a range would mean an outperformance of other commodities, but maybe not world bonds or equities.

Similarly underwhelmed in the short term is Canada based ScotiaMocatta. Although there are numerous reasons to remain friendly towards gold, says Scotia, the current economic climate may delay the start of the next gold rally. The US dollar is still relatively strong and economic data in the US, China and parts of Asia suggest better than expected economic growth.

As a result equity markets are rising with some hitting multi-year highs. This may well see funds increase their exposure to equities and industrial commodities at the expense of more safe-haven investments such as gold, Scotia suggests. In addition, the financial markets seem less vulnerable to acts of terrorism and therefore demand for safe-haven investments may be waning. This was seen in gold’s muted reaction to the bombs in London and Egypt, and the ongoing strife in Iraq.

However, don’t get too despondent just yet. Scotia notes, as many do, that even though the current business climate is stronger than expected, the underlying structural problems, namely the deficits, consumer debt and housing bubbles, are still issues that could derail the US economy at any time. Higher interest rates and high energy prices are likely at some stage to dampen consumer confidence, which in turn is likely to undermine the economy.

Overall, says Scotia, although the US dollar has performed well in 2005, its new found strength may not last that long. As fund managers return from their summer breaks and review the financial climate, they may well question the strength of the dollar and the equity and bond markets. Scotia asks: "Are the funds already anticipating hard times ahead by moving into commodities again?" Whether they are already doing so or not, over the longer term gold is expected to continue to attract buying by funds as they diversify their portfolios, the analysts suggest. The emergence of gold exchange traded funds also means that more institutional and private investors now have access to the gold market, which means their potential impact on prices has increased significantly.

Scotia believes China’s announcement that it was to revalue the yuan and fix it to a basket of currencies is an important development that may bring about further dollar weakness. At the same time as the China announcement, Malaysia also announced it would scrap its currency peg to the US dollar and establish a floating system against a basket of currencies. If this trend gains popularity across Asia, says Scotia, the US dollar may come under renewed pressure as central banks adjust their reserves. This could benefit gold in two ways, Scotia believes.

Firstly, gold could be one of the items in the currency basket and secondly, any sign the dollar is embarking on its downward path again could see investors and funds jump back into gold with a vengeance.

Scotia, too, notes the financial markets seem to be taking the renewed terrorist threats in their stride. The bombings in London saw an initial reaction, but by the end of the day, the markets had recovered. However, the Middle East is likely to remain a special case, says Scotia, due to its importance in the oil market. Therefore any political unrest in the region, brought on by Iran and its nuclear ambitions or following the death of King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, could have far reaching implications.

To sum up, Scotia suggests that although the outlook for gold in the medium to long term remains bullish, as further US dollar weakness is expected, in the short term, gold may struggle to push higher. Global economic growth seems to be picking up again, which is likely to entice funds back to the equity markets, says Scotia. However, the current healthy economic climate may be short-lived and a further period of US dollar weakness that triggers wider economic troubles may be just over the horizon. Any hint that troubles are on the way is likely to propel the gold market into phase two of the bull market that started in 2001, Scotia believes.

It follows that when a price is stuck in a trading range, both analysts and chartists alike are reluctant to place a definitive bet either way. However, while opinion suggests gold may yet look to test support levels around the US$410/oz mark, the underlying theme appears to be one of upside potential, rather than downside. This is particularly the case when uncertainties of global security are thrown into the mix. Despite a more blasй approach to such matters in these continuingly troubled times, this is where gold lives.

There is, however, one other factor often overlooked by the investment community. Whilst gold is a strange beast, being more akin to a currency than a commodity, it’s easy to forget that one of the fundamental uses for gold is in the crafting of jewellery.

Dollars, deficits and trading ranges aside, Indian newspaper The Financial Express points out that China is en route to take over India as the world’s largest consumer of gold jewellery. Retail sales of gold jewellery in China rose more than 11% to 224t in 2004, and sales may increase to as much as 600t within five years, according to Merrill Lynch analysis.

The Financial Express thus suggests the awakening behemoth, already responsible for a new global commodity price regime, may have a similar effect on gold. And the target price? US$725/oz by 2010.

Новости инвестиционного фонда FX Global Hedge Fund:

Фонд принимает в удалённое доверительное управление торговые счета от $50 000. Целевой уровень квартальной прибыльности = 80%.
Подробнее на страничке http://omenus.net/investment/index.htm

Ведущий рассылки - Товстановский Владимир Александрович, управляющий FX Global Hedge Fund