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Мировые новости на рынке металлов.
The base
metals pushed lower
yesterday
following continued gloomy sentiment
about the
level of US demand after the 0.25%
rate cut by
the Fed. The strength of the dollar
after the
move was an additional negative. But
things
could turn around quickly if signs of an
improvement
begin to filter through in economic
data.
Figures
released earlier this week showed strong
housing
sales and durable goods orders in May,
but the key
figure will be the June NAPM report
on Monday,
which is the most forward and
accurate
indicator of the bunch. On the basis of
expectations
for today’s Chicago area prerelease
traders are
clearly looking for a modest
improvement,
but if that comes in a lot better
than
expected, then some short covering could
be seen in
the metals ahead of the weekend.
Yesterday
copper pushed to a fresh 23 month
low and has
moved lower still this morning
following
an 8,325 tonne stock build. Zinc
pushed down
through $900 and nickel saw stops
hit below
$6200, but has bounced back after
penetrating
$6000 this morning.
Aluminium
held up reasonably well, and bounced
off key
support at $1457. However despite
having the
most positive fundamentals of the
complex,
there must be some heavy stop orders
below that
support point which will clearly attract
some
speculative selling early today – despite
the 2,025
tonne stock draw. Only lead managed
to buck the
negative trend, with the market
supported
by its low levels and the fact that LME
stocks are
now close to the lows prevailing a
year ago
when the price was $50 higher.
Japanese
construction orders fell 17.9% in May
from year
ago levels
copper –
METI estimates that Japanese copper
demand in
the current fiscal year will fall by 4.4%
to 1.285
million tonnes. Production is forecast to
fall to
1.442 million tonnes, down 1% from a year
ago.
aluminium –
Alcoa announced it was cutting
aluminium
production at its Alumar smelter in
San Luis,
Brazil by 63,000 tonnes from its
previous
capacity output of 370,000 tonnes per
year. This
equates to a 17% reduction, slightly
more than the
15% cut in power that the
government
is requesting.
The
recycling rate of aluminium cans in Japan
rose to
80.6%, up 2.1% higher than a year ago.
This
compares with 62% of the used aluminium
cans
recycled in the US last year and 43% in
Europe.
Kaiser said
it was disappointed that the BPA had
either
rejected or “ignored” its offer to cut its
power use
in exchange for compensation to
cover the
cost of idling its Pacific Northwest
smelters.
The company said it would consider
further
talks with the BPA with a strong
preference
for restarting a portion of its
Northwest
smelter operations beginning October
1. The BPA
is set to announce its rescheduled
power rates
for the 2001-2006 contract period
today.
zinc –
Japan’s METI estimated that domestic
zinc demand
is due to fall by 3.9% in the
2001/02
financial year from a year ago to
575,400
tonnes. Production is expected to rise
by 0.3% to
654,100 tonnes.
Mexican
producer Penoles said its zinc
production
could rise by about 10% in Q2 and as
much as 30%
in Q3 and by 40% over the course
of the
fiscal year. The expansion has been due
to the
start-up of the 26,000 tonnes per year Rey
de Plata
mine and the pending start-up of the
110,000
tonnes per year Madero zinc mine.
Penoles
produced 173,200 tonnes last year.
nickel –
Eramet said that $180 million has been
approved by
its SLN subsidiary to expand nickel
mining and
smelting in New Caledonia. . The
funds will
be used to expand the Doniambo
smelter to
75,000 tonnes per year, an increase
of 25% and
also to expand production from
2005.
Anaconda
plans to raise $71 million to fund the
ramp up of
its Murrin Murrin nickel operations.
The plant
operated at 60% capacity in June, up
25% from
its May capacity, which implies that Q2
output will
be well down on Q1.
precious
metals – Gold has pushed below
$270 on the
back of disappointed long liquidation
following
the 0.25% rate cut by the Fed
announced
on Wednesday. Dollar strength was
another key
driving force, with the euro suffering
particularly
badly yesterday as traders see low
growth
prospects in the Euroland region relative
to the US.
E-mail cudwz@themail.com
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