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Здравствуйте уважаемые подписчики!

  Ну как, понравились вам движения после объявления вердикта FOMC по ставкам!? Надеюсь что ДА! Но вот почему движения имели такой характер, этого многие не понимают.
 Одна из самых старых пословиц WallStreet звучит так: "Покупай на слухах, продавай на фактах." Это именно то, чем занимались крупные игроки рынка Форекс (так называемые маркетмейкеры) в последние несколько недель. А ещё за 10 часов до публикации решения - начали сворачивать удочки! Обычно, перед самой новостью доллар растёт, но в данном случае мы наблюдали обратную тенденцию. Кстати, несколько моих знакомых трейдеров (одни из лучших в СНГ), потеряли вчера десятки и сотни тысяч, из за того что не успели вовремя пресечь потери. Вероятно, это случилось из-за прозрачности позиции FED и понимания трейдерами, что же будет в дальнейшем. И даже позитивное содержание отчёта FOMC, не смогло сдержать дальнейшего падения доллара. Однако, как мы увидели сегодня, краткосрочные игроки всё таки боятся продолжения флэта. который наблюдается ещё с февраля, и при достижении сильнейшей линии сопротивления на 1.2350, благополучно покинули рынок.

Ниже я повторно приведу вердикт FOMC, и ещё одну любопытную статью которая называется - "Перечень того, за чем Fed пристально следит !!!"

Release Date: September 21, 2004

Федеральный Комитет Открытого рынка решил сегодня повысить ставки (federal funds rate) на 25 базисных пункта, до 1 и 3/4 (т.е. до 1.75%).

Комитет верит, что даже после этого действия, монетарная политика остаётся смягчённой, и вместе с устойчивым ростом производительности - обеспечивает поддержку экономической активности в стране. После замедления роста в начале года, в связи с растущими ценами на энергоносители, производственный рост получил новый толчок в развитии, и условия на рынке труда постепенно улучшились. Несмотря на растущие цены энергоносителей, инфляция и инфляционные ожидания ослабились в текущих месяцах.

Комитет осознает риск, как понижения, так и увеличения ценовой нестабильности и продолжения экономического роста в нескольких следующих кварталах. Опираясь на относительно низкую инфляцию, Комитет верит что столь мягкая монетарная политика будет устранена, и доведена до приемлемых нейтральных норм. Тем не менее, Комитет будет реагировать на изменения в перспективах экономического роста, и выполнит свою обязанность по поддержанию стабильных цен.

A Checklist of what the Fed Watches

Introduction. The table below shows the key indicators that are monitored closely by the Federal Reserve. Its purpose is to help forecast the direction of the federal funds rate. The arrows in the table denote our assessment of what the recent and prospective status of the indicator means for the policy outlook. For example, an arrow pointing up means that the indicator argues for tighter policy. It is worth noting that the importance of each indicator in forecasting Fed policy varies depending on prevailing conditions.

Assessment. The Fed is likely to continue raising rates in a deliberate manner because the sustained strength of the economy precludes the need for super-stimulative monetary conditions. The federal funds rate is expected to increase by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three policy meetings this year, and to eventually climb from the current level of 1.5% to a more "neutral" level of 4.5% by the middle of 2006.

1) GDP growth. The economy's long run, trend rate of growth is thought to be around 3-3Ѕ% per annum. This figure is derived by adding trend growth of the labour force of 1% to trend growth of labour productivity of about 2-2Ѕ%. Source: The quarterly GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce. Recently: Led by a short-lived pullback in personal consumption, real GDP moderated to an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter from 4.5% in the first quarter. However, growth is expected to rebound to 3.8% in the third quarter amid still-low interest rates and strong momentum in business spending. While higher oil prices present a downside risk to the outlook, growth appears sufficiently strong to suggest that the current highly stimulative monetary conditions are no longer necessary.

2) Capacity utilization. The rate of capacity utilization is a measure of industrial production relative to operating capacity. A range of 82% to 84% is thought to be consistent with optimal capacity usage and stable price pressures. Source: The monthly industrial production report from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Recently: A rising trend in industrial production in recent months has lifted the capacity utilization rate from a 20-year low of 74.0% in June 2003 to 77.1% in July 2004. However, the current rate of utilization is still sufficiently low to exert downward pressure on inflation.

3) Employment growth. Monthly growth of around 140,000 in nonfarm payrolls is thought to be consistent with average growth in the labour force and a stable jobless rate in the long run. Source: The monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: Non-farm payroll employment expanded 144,000 in August, in line with long-run trend growth. Job growth is expected to strengthen in coming months amid a moderation in exceptionally strong productivity gains.

4) Unemployment rate. A jobless rate of around 5% is thought to be consistent with stable wage and price pressures. However, it is worth noting that there is a large degree of uncertainty about estimates of the "natural" or (full employment) rate of joblessness. Source: The monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: The jobless rate inched down to 5.4% in August from 5.5% in July, though it remains somewhat above its "natural" rate.

5) Supplier delivery times. A lengthening (shortening) in supplier delivery times flags an increase (decrease) in production bottlenecks and an increase (decrease) in producer prices. Source: The index of vendor deliveries in the monthly surveys of manufacturers and non-manufacturers by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above (below) 50 points to an increase (decrease) in production bottlenecks and an increase (decrease) in price pressures. Recently: The index of vendor delivery times in the manufacturing ISM survey stood at a high 63.2 in August, though this is down from a 25-year high of 69.4 in May 2004. The similar measure from the non-manufacturing survey has stabilized in recent months around the August level of 57.0. Both reports indicate a lengthening of supplier delivery times, which may foreshadow an upturn in factory prices and inflation.

6) Overtime hours. An increase (decrease) in the number of overtime hours worked per week in the manufacturing sector indicates an increase (decrease) in the intensity of labour usage and flags a potential increase (decrease) in wage pressures. Source: The monthly employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: Weekly overtime hours in the manufacturing sector have remained little changed in recent months at 4.6 hours in August, though this is up from a level of 4.1 hours in the year-earlier period.

7) Orders backlog. An increase in unfilled orders indicates possible production bottlenecks that could lead to price pressures in the manufacturing sector. Source: The index of unfilled orders in the monthly surveys of manufacturers and non-manufacturers by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above (below) 50 flags an increase (decrease) in the backlog of orders and an increase (decrease) in price pressures. Another source of data on unfilled orders is the monthly report on manufacturers' orders by the Bureau of the Census. Recently: Manufacturers’ unfilled orders have risen sharply in recent months to July and are up 9.8% from a year ago. The ISM manufacturing sub-index has receded to 55.0 in August from a recent high of 66.5 in April, while the similar measure from the non-manufacturing survey has pulled back to 53.0 in August from 56.5 in May. Still, both measures remain above 50, indicating that some production bottlenecks and price pressures have emerged at the factory level.


Price Pressures: The following indicators refer to movements in costs and prices.

8) Consumer prices. Along with achieving maximum sustainable growth, the Fed's dual objective is to maintain price stability. The Fed monitors several price measures including the "core" (excluding food and energy) PCE price index and the core CPI. Source: The quarterly GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce; the monthly CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: Quarter-over-quarter annualized growth in the core PCE price index moderated to 1.7% in the second quarter of 2004 from 2.1% in the previous quarter. Year-to-year growth in the core CPI has stabilized at 1.8% in July 2004 versus 1.9% in June, though this is up from a recent trough of 1.1% in January. In all, underlying consumer price inflation appears well contained owing to the slack in the economy and strong productivity gains.

9) Inflation expectations. An increase in inflation expectations can indicate a shift in inflation psychology and an upturn in underlying inflation pressures. Source: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters; the spread between yields on conventional long-run Treasury bonds and real-return bonds. Recently: The Philadelphia Fed's survey of forecasters in the second quarter of 2004 shows that long-term expectations of CPI inflation have remained fairly stable at 2.5% since 1999. However, the spread between yields on conventional long-run Treasury bonds and real-return bonds has widened to 2.9 percentage points recently from 2.6 percentage points a year ago, suggesting some deterioration in inflation expectations.

10) Unit labour costs. The difference between growth in labour compensation (wages and benefits) and growth in output per hour worked (productivity) provides an estimate of growth in the per-unit labour cost of production. Labour costs are the largest component of a firm's total costs. To preserve profit margins, businesses tend to raise prices when labour compensation outpaces productivity. Source: The quarterly business productivity report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: Unit labour costs in the non-farm business sector fell 0.3% in the second quarter of 2004 from a year earlier as a 4.6% surge in productivity more than offset a 4.2% advance in hourly compensation. The decline in unit labour costs will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation.

11) Employment costs. The employment cost index measures "pure" changes in wages and benefits by controlling for shifts in employment between high- and low-paying jobs. Source: The quarterly Employment Cost Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. Recently: On a year-over-year basis, growth in the employment cost index remained moderate at 3.9% in the second quarter of 2004. This rate has held steady in the past year, with moderating wage costs offset by accelerating benefit costs. The ongoing slack in labour markets should keep wage growth subdued for some time to come.

12) Producer prices. Higher prices at the manufacturing level can sometimes filter down to the retail level. Source: The monthly producer price index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor. As well, the index of prices paid for materials in the monthly surveys of manufacturers and non-manufacturers by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above (below) 50 indicates a rise (fall) in material prices. Recently: Year-over-year growth in the core producer price index was a moderate 1.7% in July 2004. However, the prices-paid indexes in the two ISM surveys have stayed high in recent months to August (manufacturing 81.5, non-manufacturing 70.0). This implies some upward pressure on costs stemming from higher energy and other commodity prices and the weaker US dollar.


Other Indicators

13) Money growth. The monetary aggregates contain information about prospective trends in economic activity. The Fed's monitoring range for year-over-year growth in M2, which consists of cash in circulation and deposits in demand and notice accounts at banks, is 1 to 5 per cent. Growth in the middle of this range is thought to be consistent with sustainable economic growth. Source: Money Stock and Debt Measures, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Recently: Year-over-year growth in M2 (seasonally adjusted) was 3.7% in July 2004, comfortably within the Fed's monitoring range. The current pace of monetary expansion is consistent with trend economic growth in the period ahead.

14) Yield curve. The slope of the yield curve tends to be a fair leading indicator of GDP growth in the year ahead. A steep slope (greater than 2 percentage points) reflects an accommodative monetary policy stance and flags above-trend growth. Conversely, a flat slope (less than 1 percentage point) implies tight policy and prospective below-trend growth. The slope of the yield curve can be measured by calculating the difference between yields on long- and short-term corporate debt. Recently: The current wide spread of 4 percentage points between yields on AAA-rated long-term corporate bonds and 3-month commercial paper indicates an extremely loose monetary policy stance. The steeply sloped curve flags strong economic growth in the year ahead.

15) Real fed funds rate. The federal funds rate adjusted for growth in the core consumer price index provides a measure of "real" short-term interest rates and the prevailing stance of monetary policy. A real rate of about 3% is thought to be consistent with "neutral" policy --- one that neither stimulates nor restricts demand. A real rate below the neutral level indicates a loose policy stance that over time must adjust upwards to avoid rising inflation. Similarly, a real rate above the neutral rate indicates a tight policy stance that eventually must adjust downwards to prevent a recession. Recently: The current 1.5% fed funds rate is still slightly below the core CPI inflation rate. This implies a negative real rate on overnight funds and points to above-potential growth ahead.

16) US dollar. A rise (fall) in the value of the dollar represents a tightening (easing) in monetary conditions. As a rough guide, an 8 per cent appreciation of the dollar has the equivalent impact on aggregate demand as a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates. According to the Federal Reserve’s FRB/US model of the economy, an increase in the currency of this magnitude could reduce the level of real GDP by roughly one per cent after a couple of years. Recently: Measured against a trade-weighted basket of 26 currencies, the US dollar has stabilized this year, though it is still down 11% from its high of February 2002. The past depreciation should support net exports for a while longer.

17) Financial Market Stability. Disorder in financial markets can trigger a policy response if it undermines the Fed's goal of maintaining sustainable economic growth. A good example of this is when the Fed reduced interest rates during the Russian debt crisis of 1998 despite the inflationary threat posed by tight labour markets. Recently: US equity markets (as measured by the S&P500 index) have traded sideways this year, with the positive impact of strong economic growth offset by the negative pull from rising interest rates. Overall, movements in financial markets remain orderly.

18) Credit Conditions. The Fed monitors the volume and availability of credit to gauge whether imbalances are emerging in the financial system. Source: Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the US, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Recently: Bank lending to businesses has firmed up in recent months to August 2004, while lending for personal and real estate transactions remains on a sharp upward trend. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for July 2004 found that banks continued to ease lending standards in recent months.

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Также, я ОЧЕНЬ рекомендую вам прочесть одну из моих любимых книг - Марк Фишер - "Секрет миллионера " .
НЕ ЛЕНИТЕСЬ!!!!

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