Обзор прессы:

Золото дорожает все сильнее

Цены на золото достигли самого высокого уровня почти за 25 лет, и специалисты полагают, что они будут расти и дальше.

Тем не менее, есть и эксперты, которые считают, что рынок созрел для коррекции этих цен, которая может быть вызвана попытками крупных инвесторов обналичить недавние доходы.

На азиатских торгах цена унции золота поднялась до 518,92 доллара. В последний раз такой уровень достигался в марте 1981 года.

К моменту закрытия торгов в Лондоне цена немного упала и составила 515,70 долларов.

"В настоящее время настроения инвесторов по-прежнему оптимистичные", - сказал трейдер из NM Rothchild Дэррен Хиткоут.

Однако он заметил, что на каком-то этапе ожидает снижения цен, и когда это произойдет, то они могут упасть на 30 долларов за один день.

Ряд факторов

Рост стоимости ценного металла был вызван комбинацией ряда факторов.

Многие инвесторы покупают золото, чтобы защитить себя от ускоряющихся темпов инфляции и падения курсов доллара и йены.

Кроме того, спрос повысился из-за роста продаж ювелирных изделий и из-за появления слухов о том, что центральные банки стран Европы и Азии могут сократить свои запасы долларов, заменив их золотом.

Ценные металлы часто рассматриваются как хорошее вложение во времена ослабления валют и повышения темпов инфляции, потому что инвесторов беспокоит перспектива снижения стоимости их ценных бумаг.

Некоторые специалисты полагают, что в следующем году цена унции золота может достичь 525 долларов.

Абсолютный рекорд цены унции золота был поставлен в январе 1980 года, когда она достигла 873 долларов.

Курс евро: стабильность колебаний

Вот уже целый месяц на мировом валютном рынке наблюдается практически одна и та же картина: обменный курс евро к доллару резко колеблется, но - в весьма узком коридоре.

Середина колебаний обменного курса евро, начиная с ноября, находится примерно на уровне одного доллара и 17 с половиной американских центов. В ноябре курс евро чаще находился в нижней части, теперь он скорее переместился в верхнюю часть, то есть европейская денежная единица несколько подорожала.

Опасность инфляции остается

Причиной этого подорожания стала изменившаяся тональность высказываний представителей Европейского центрального банка. В прошлый четверг его президент Жан-Клод Трише, объясняя причины первого за последние пять лет повышения ставки рефинансирования в еврозоне, указал на возросшую опасность инфляции – но добавил, что для обуздания роста цен целой серии повышений, скорее всего, не потребуется.

Однако не прошло и недели, как вдруг сразу несколько высокопоставленных представителей Европейского центрального банка выступили с заявлениями, смысл которых сводится к следующему тезису: полностью устранить угрозу инфляции пока не удалось. Участники рынка усмотрели в этом недвусмысленный намек на возможность еще нескольких повышений ставки в еврозоне, и начали скупать евро, ведь чем выше процент, тем выгоднее вложения в данной валюте. Курс евро пошел вверх, но потом вновь снизился, поскольку участники рынка осознали: в еврозоне еще только решают, поднимать ли ставку, а в Америке ее поднимут с большой долей вероятности, причем уже в следующий вторник. Из-за таких вот метаний курс евро к доллару и колеблется в узком коридоре, что в принципе можно было бы назвать состоянием равновесия. Вот только определить, насколько прочным или хрупким является это равновесие, очень трудно.

Big Week Ahead for the Dollar

∙ Big Week Ahead for the Dollar
∙ Pound Rallies after Stronger Trade Data
∙ MoF Comments Weighs on Yen

US Dollar
The end of the year is approaching and unless we get some interesting price action next week, we may really be stuck in range bound modes for the remainder of the year. We have faith that given the tremendous amount of data on the economic calendar in the week ahead, the odds are certainly in favor of some breakout move in the dollar. Normally, the Fed meeting or the TIC data alone can move markets, but to have the Fed meeting, retail sales, the trade balance, CPI, industrial production, Philly Fed and the Treasury International Capital flow report released all in one week, we would have to see an extreme amount of demand from both bulls and bears for the EUR/USD to remain in its current ranges. Judging from the market forecasts, it looks as if the market expects the data to be dollar bullish in the first 3 days of the week and possibly dollar bearish data in the second half of the week. Of course, these are simply the market’s average expectations, which day traders hope to be different from the actual results, otherwise it would not provide as interesting trading opportunities as they would be hoping for. Looking beyond the FX markets, gold is now behaving in a very similar way that the dollar did for most this past year – which is to trade in a one way uptrend. With prices at a dizzying high above $530 an ounce, traders are scratching their heads about what could be spurring the rise in the yellow metal. Aside from strong demand in general, it is becoming increasing clear that traders are also worried that inflation may roar its ugly head again even though economists are calling for consumer prices to fall for the first time in five months – we’ll see who is right.

Euro
After yesterday’s strong gains, the Euro ended the day virtually unchanged. Most of the economic data released this morning was bearish for the Euro, but the earlier dip in the European trading session was erased throughout the US session. The German current account and trade surpluses both fell more than expected as a result of a sharp rise in import prices. By the same token, French industrial production tumbled 2.5 percent compared to the market’s expectations for a 0.2 percent rise. Manufacturing production also saw a similar tumble. The only piece of mildly positive data was the confirmation of small 0.3 percent growth in Italy during the third quarter. There was also an upward revision to private consumption during the same period. Based on the recent data that we have seen lately, it seems that Germany and France are really lagging in growth while growth in countries like Italy and Spain are really accelerating. The shift in growth should be part of the reason why the ECB is being cautious with rate hikes. Although a follow-up rate hike is expected sometime next year, the central bank is cautiously managing inflation versus market expectations. In the week ahead, the Eurozone calendar is just as busy as the US calendar with a bunch of trade as well as inflation reports due for release. To top that off, we are also expecting both the ZEW and IFO surveys.

British Pound
The British pound climbed higher today against the dollar thanks to a better than expected trade balance report. For the month of October, the trade deficit shrank from GBP 5.6 billion to GBP 4.5 billion as the oil balance moved back into a surplus. Economic data has been very mixed these days, which highlights the difficulty the Bank of England must be facing in determining monetary policy as they weigh inflation expectations with wage growth. According to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), consumer spending in the year ahead is expected to be constrained by high energy costs and consumers’ unwillingness to take on even more debt given the slowdown in the housing market. The CBI warned the BoE to be ready to raise rates next year if needed. Meanwhile the UK’s Nationwide Building Society warned that even if house prices continue to rise next year, the gains will be modest as the high level of personal indebtness prevents buyers from being able to afford new homes. They predicted house prices to either remain unchanged or to rise 3 percent at best. They also expect the central bank to cut rates again next year to spur demand.

Japanese Yen
The Japanese Yen gave back some of yesterday’s gains as the Japanese economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter. Initially expected to grow by 0.6 percent, the Japanese economy actually grew by 0.2 percent due to a fall in private inventories. Despite the fall though, analysts are saying that upward revisions in other parts of the report such as capital expenditure and consumer spending still gives hope that Japan’s recovery may continue. Meanwhile Japanese officials continue to be relatively comfortable with the current movement in the Yen. MoF’s Watanabe was on the wires last night talking specifically about how current EURJPY movements are reflective of fundamentals. Taking a look at the price action in EURJPY, they must be fairly comfortable with the Euro’s 6 percent rise against the Yen over the past 3 months or 3.8 percent rise to all time highs over the past month. As we have previously mentioned, Japan’s export dependent economy benefits significantly from a weak currency and we are sure that the country’s monetary policy specialists are fully aware of this. Furthermore, if the recent move in the Yen was to the upside, we know that nearly all of the government officials will be kicking and screaming for some sort of intervention.

Yen May Gain as Japan's Tankan Report Seen Rising, Survey Shows

The yen, down 15 percent against the dollar this year, may rally this week because the Bank of Japan probably will report rising confidence among the nation's business leaders, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Fifty-two percent of the 52 traders, strategists and investors surveyed on Dec. 9 from Sydney to New York advised buying the yen against the dollar, up from 26 percent a week ago. The survey was the most bullish on the Japanese currency in two months. About half the participants recommended buying Japan's currency against the euro, compared with 17 who said they would sell it.

The Bank of Japan will say on Dec. 14 that its Tankan confidence index climbed to 23 in the third quarter from 19 in the second, according to the median forecast of 26 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui caused the currency to rise from a record low against the euro and the weakest in 32 months versus the dollar when he said an end to the bank's zero interest-rate policy ``is close.''

``The yen has been pushed too far and it's ripe for a rebound as people take account of the strengthening Japanese economy,'' said Adam Myers, a currency strategist in London at UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader.

Japan's currency may strengthen beyond 119 against the dollar this week for the first time since Nov. 29, said Myers. It traded at 120.66 per dollar and 142.52 per euro on Dec. 9 in New York. The yen fell to a record 142.81 per euro on Dec. 6 and to 121.39 per dollar on Dec. 5, the lowest since 2003. It's set for the worst year against the dollar since 1979 as the Federal Reserve's seven rate increases attracted investors.

`Start a Move'

``A strong Tankan report would be enough to start a move higher,'' said Myers, whose firm ranked behind Deutsche Bank AG in Euromoney magazine's annual ranking of the largest foreign- exchange banks.

Fukui suggested the BOJ may end more than four years of keeping rates near zero percent because consumer prices will show ``solid'' gains in the first quarter as the world's second- largest economy expands. ``It is clear to everyone that the end is close,'' he said in a speech in Nagoya City on Dec. 8.

The Bank of Japan has struggled to end deflation, which erodes corporate profits and discourages spending.

Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, stopped falling in October for the first time in five months. They have risen in only one month since April 1998. Core inflation will accelerate to 0.5 percent in the next fiscal year, the BOJ said in its twice-yearly economic outlook on Oct. 31.

Getting It Wrong

Bloomberg's weekly currency survey has correctly forecast the dollar's direction in 12 of 27 weeks against the yen. Most analysts were wrong this year in predicting the yen would rise against the dollar.

``The extent that the Fed raised rates and the interest-rate differential surprised the market,'' said Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``We didn't have a sense about how extensive that gap was going to be.''

The Fed has raised its interest-rate target at 12 consecutive meetings since June 2004 from 1 percent, and shows no signs of stopping. Another quarter-point increase is forecast when the Fed meets Dec. 13 by all 75 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The federal funds rate is 4 percentage points more than Japan's, up from 2.25 percentage points at the start of the year.

`Close to a Peak'

Thirty-six percent of those surveyed recommended buying the euro against the U.S. currency on speculation the dollar's 15 percent rally against the 12-nation currency this year reflects expectations for the Fed to raise rates tomorrow.

``People have bought the dollar a lot on the rate story this year, and it's hard to see much more of a rally,'' said Steve Saywell, chief currency strategist in London at Citigroup Inc. ``We think the dollar is close to a peak.''

The European Central Bank raised its benchmark rate for the first time in five years to 2.25 percent on Dec. 1.

The yen may also gain on speculation the yield advantage U.S. debt has over Japanese bonds will narrow, said Sven Friebe, a currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich.

The gap between U.S. and Japanese government two-year debt Treasuries shrank to 4.13 percentage points after Fukui's comments. The difference reached 4.21 percentage points on Dec. 5, the widest since 2001.

``It's been a very strong move against the yen on rates, but it's looking very stretched now and the chances are that if yields are going to move, they will do so in the yen's favor,'' said Friebe. ``Corporate spending is strong in Japan, and Tankan might well turn out to be a strong number.''

                         BUY       SELL      HOLD
Euro                     21        18        19
Yen                      27        15        10
British pound            15        28        13
Australian dollar        20        17        20
Swiss franc              29        13        15
Canadian dollar          19        15        19
Euro versus yen          17        26        11

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Ведущий рассылки - Гендельф Николай Рудольфович, управляющий FX Global Hedge Fund
Обзор рынка подготовлен Товстановским Владимиром Александровичем, главным управляющим FX Global Hedge Fund