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Рынки охватила золотая лихорадка

Стоимость одной унции золота на мировых рынках преодолела барьер в 500 долларов, впервые за последние 18 лет. Эксперты предсказывают, что это не последнее повышение цен на золото.
Во вторник цена золота на биржах в Азии достигла 502,3 доллара за унцию (примерно 28 грамм).

Специалисты объясняют эту тенденцию повышением спроса на ювелирные изделия, а также желанием некоторых стран увеличить долю золота в своих золотовалютных запасах.

Кроме того, привлекательность золота для тех, кто стремится вложить капиталы, растет в связи с угрозой терроризма и связанной с этим экономической нестабильностью.

Многие эксперты полагают, что золото продолжит дорожать.

"Многие инвесторы покупают только потому, что растет цена на золото, а уж только потом пытаются объяснить себе, почему так происходит", - считает Инси Юй, эксперт по ценным металлам банка Barclays.

В январе 1980 года цены на золото установили рекорд - тогда одна унция стоила 873 доллара. В декабре 1987 года цена на этот ценный металл упала до 502 долларов, но лишь на один день. К 2001 году стоимость одной унции золота колебалась в районе 250 долларов.

За 2005 год цена на золото выросла почти на 15%.

В последнее время поднялись и цены на платину, которая используется в ювелирных изделиях, а также в выхлопной системе автомобилей.

Сейчас цена на платину находится на самом высоком за последние 25 лет уровне. Во вторник цена за одну унцию платины достигла 1000 долларов.

Trichet's dilemma

After leaving interest rates unchanged for more than two years, the European Central Bank has finally raised its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The bank is trying to establish its credibility as an inflation hawk, but this may be hard to do without endangering the fragile recovery in some of the euro zone’s biggest economies

CONSISTENCY may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but it is an excellent quality in a central banker. For those entrusted with their country’s money supply, nothing matters more than having financial markets believe, deep down, that their monetary champion stands ready to slay the inflation beast whenever it rears its ugly head.

Over the past two years, the European Central Bank (ECB), the euro zone’s guardian, has had to endure a great deal of criticism from markets over its monotonous monetary policy. Despite an economic downturn from which the zone’s largest economies are only now fitfully emerging, the ECB steadfastly refused to lower interest rates, which have remained at 2% since June 2003. This drew fire particularly from those dazzled by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan’s methods for handling the post-boom slowdown: cut interest rates to the bone and hold them there until the danger is well past (see chart). The ECB’s stolid stance, they grumbled, was one of the reasons Europe’s economies were still fragile while America’s was roaring along—revised third-quarter GDP figures released this week show the American economy growing at an estimated annual rate of 4.3%, against 2.6% in the euro zone.

Analysts hungering for action from the ECB have finally got some, though not the sort all of them would like. On Thursday December 1st, the bank raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 2.25%—its first hike in over five years. The move was hardly surprising, as Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s president, had made it clear weeks before that the time had come for a tightening. Figures for November put euro-zone inflation at an annual rate of 2.4%. Though this marks a falling-off from September’s 2.6% peak, it is still well above the bank’s target of roughly 2%. The ECB, a mere seven years old and thus still trying to prove its credibility, moved quickly in the hope of strangling inflation in its infancy, before it poses any real threat to price stability.

But Mr Trichet must tread carefully. Higher interest rates mean a stronger currency, which can hobble the exports crucial to economic recovery in the euro zone. Italy’s current economic woes are due at least in part to its adoption of the euro, which deprived the government of the serial devaluations it once used to keep the country’s labour-intensive manufacturing sector competitive on world markets.

Soon after Mr Trichet’s announcement that higher interest rates were in the offing, the euro began appreciating against the dollar, helped along by signs from the Fed that its “measured pace” of rate increases—which have taken America’s key rate from 1% to 4% over the past 18 months—was coming to an end. Mr Trichet acted quickly to reassure markets that the planned increase did not necessarily constitute a trend. Such assurances calmed the foreign-exchange market, as did a statement from a future member of the Fed’s monetary committee that the bank still had some way to go before easing off on interest rates.

Mr Trichet has to worry not only about the markets, but also about the politicians and interest groups who are vehemently opposed to any tightening. In the days leading up to the rate rise, bankers joined trade unions and business leaders in complaining that higher interest rates would endanger the slow recovery and throw people out of work. On Thursday and Friday, ECB policymakers went on a charm offensive, arguing in a series of interviews that keeping inflation low was the best path to long-term economic growth.

But Mr Trichet also reiterated that he was not planning to keep tightening. On Thursday, after the announcement, he said: “We are not engaging ex ante in a series of interest-rate increases. And as I said, we will continue to monitor closely all developments with respect to risks to price stability.” This was seen as an unusual move for a central banker trying to nip inflation in the bud and keen to cement his credibility as a monetary hawk. But the message kept the euro from leaping against the dollar, and eased some of the public pressure on the ECB. Mr Trichet is undoubtedly hoping that his pre-emptive action will send a more powerful signal to markets than his wishy-washy public remarks. But he is walking a very fine line.

If euro-zone inflation stays well above target, the ECB will probably have to act again, no matter how much this upsets currency markets or politicians. A central banker’s credibility as a hawk is what keeps inflationary expectations at bay. Once such expectations are established, inflation takes on a life of its own, and it can be extremely costly to quell. Paul Volcker, the Reagan-era Fed chairman, had to raise interest rates to nearly 20% in order to establish his inflation-fighting credentials decisively. He conquered the double-digit inflation that had plagued his predecessors, but at the cost of plunging America into its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Europe’s situation is particularly tricky, because the euro zone is not an optimal currency area. Different countries are at different points in their economic cycles—in 2004, Italy’s GDP grew by a mere 1.2%, while Ireland’s increased by 4.5%. These countries no longer have the option of using money supply to control growth, and their scope for loose fiscal policy has been limited, in theory at least, by the Maastricht criteria, which forbid euro-zone members from running budget deficits over 3% of GDP for any extended period.

In practice, Germany and France, as well as some smaller countries, have flagrantly violated this rule. But the Maastricht criteria were supposed to help synchronise the euro zone’s business cycles; gutting the rules will slow the pace of integration. And the European Union has so far proven unable to enact other policies, such as a directive to increase cross-border competition in services, which could provide some of the labour and capital mobility that eases regional disparities in large currency areas like the United States. This presents the ECB with an unappetising choice: slow down the fragile recovery in economies like Italy’s, or run the risk that more robust countries will overheat.

But though many would like to pin the blame for Europe's woes on its monetary policy, the one-size-fits-all currency regime is not the main cause of the euro zone's problems. Its biggest economies are burdened with a number of structural flaws, in particular rigid labour markets. Ill-fitting monetary policy exacerbates these but it does not cause them, and it cannot fix them; only radical—and unpopular—regulatory change can do that. Nonetheless, with euro-zone growth steady but unspectacular, and unemployment still stubbornly stuck above 8%, Mr Trichet would clearly prefer not to have to raise rates again in the near future.

Unfortunately, he may not have a choice. High oil prices feed inflation even as they slow economic growth, and the ECB feels even more pressure than other central banks to establish its hawkish credentials, because it is so young. Europe’s central bank may prize consistency, but it still has other hobgoblins to deal with.

G-7 Prods China to Make Yuan More Flexible for Growth

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven industrial nations pushed China to make its currency more flexible, expressing disappointment with steps taken to date.

``We expect that further implementation of China's currency system would improve the functioning and stability of the global economy and the international monetary system,'' the officials, who oversee two-thirds of the world economy, said in a statement released after two days of talks in London. ``Exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely and cooperate as appropriate.''

China's yuan has appreciated 0.4 percent since July 21, when its government replaced a decade-long peg to the dollar with a basket of currencies and allowed its exchange rate to increase by 2.1 percent. The country's major trading partners say that revaluation is not enough, arguing more is needed to help cut a record U.S. trade gap and aid economic growth in Europe and Japan.

``We believe China needs some time to get accustomed to their new currency regime, but a considerable time has already passed,'' Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki told reporters earlier today. ``I expect China to make its currency a little bit more flexible.''

Tougher on China

The G-7 officials were tougher on China than the last time they met in September, when they granted it some breathing room by calling its new currency regime ``welcome.'' Since Sept. 2003, the G-7 has pushed Asian nations to adopt more flexible currencies to help balance the world economy.

``Global imbalances also very much involve China and emerging Asian economies,'' U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said after the talks.

Lawmakers and manufacturers outside of China say an undervalued yuan hands Chinese exporters an advantage, contributing to a record trade deficit in the U.S., slow expansions in Japan and Europe, and job losses in all three.

Chinese Finance Minister Jin Renqing today declined to comment on exchange rates after he met with his G-7 counterparts. ``We exchanged views on the world economy,'' he said.

In its statement, the G-7 officials said the world economy ``remains and should continue to be solid.'' High oil prices and global economic imbalances remain risks to expansion, it said.

`Ambitious Outcome'

The G-7 said ``more vigorous, mutually reinforcing action'' is needed to help sustain economic growth. U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who chaired the talks, said ministers had already showed ``a determination'' to deal with problems such as the threat of inflation.

The officials also called for an ``ambitious outcome'' from the Doha trade round when talks continue in Hong Kong this month. The talks are floundering amid splits on agricultural subsidies. Brown said India and Brazil had made concessions to help revive the ailing trade talks.

India said it is willing to ``undertake higher cuts'' to tariffs. Brazilian Finance Minister Antonio Palocci said his government was prepared to soften its opposition to changes in industrial tariffs if European Union nations agree to smaller agricultural subsidies.

``There is obviously concern among the G-7 about whether the Hong Kong talks can yield sufficient progress in terms of the WTO,'' Canadian Finance Minister Ralph Goodale told reporters.

Australian Trade Gap Probably Narrowed to A$1.45 Bln: BN Survey

Australia's trade deficit probably narrowed in October as slowing consumer demand curbed imports and rising metal prices boosted export earnings.

The deficit in traded goods and services probably narrowed to A$1.45 billion ($1.1 billion) from A$1.62 billion in September, according to the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Bureau of Statistics will release the report tomorrow at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

Australia's trade deficit peaked at a record A$2.7 billion in November 2004. A shortfall in August would extend the nation's run of trade gaps to 45 months, the longest since the 56 months ended February 1985.

Australia's Economy Probably Grew 0.5% in 3rd Qtr: BN Survey

Australia's economic growth probably slowed in the third quarter as home building declined, record gasoline prices capped consumer spending and business inventories dropped.

Gross domestic product probably rose 0.5 percent from the second quarter, when it increased 1.3 percent, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 20 economists. The Bureau of Statistics will release the report on Dec. 7 at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

Slowing growth in Asia-Pacific's fifth-largest economy reinforces expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged this week. Building material companies such as Boral Ltd. and Carter Holt Harvey Ltd. say a slump in housing has curbed earnings, while retailers such as Coles Myer Ltd. and David Jones Ltd. have seen sales ebb.

``Consumers were hit with higher fuel costs in the quarter and the housing market has been soft,'' Bob Cunneen, senior economist at AMP Capital Investors, Australia's second-largest money manager with the equivalent of $62 billion in funds, said in Sydney. ``Against that, business investment is driving growth.

``The Reserve Bank will sit on its hands as there is no need for another rate increase.''

Australia's A$800 billion ($593 billion) economy probably expanded 2.7 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, the Bloomberg News survey showed. That compares with 2.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter.

Interest Rates

Australia's growth rate is slower than its two largest trading partners. The U.S. economy expanded 3.7 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier and Japan grew 3 percent in the same period.

Central Bank Governor Ian Macfarlane and his board meet tomorrow and will keep the overnight cash rate target unchanged at 5.5 percent, according to all 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A decision is announced at 9:30 a.m. on Dec. 7, two hours before the GDP report is released. The bank raised the rate in March to a four-year high.

Curbing quarterly growth, residential construction declined 0.8 percent in the third quarter and non-residential building dropped 0.3 percent, the government said last week.

Boral Ltd. Chief Executive Rod Pearse has said he expects housing starts will decline by between 5 percent and 10 percent in the year ending June 30, 2006, after dropping 11 percent in the previous fiscal year. Sydney-based Boral, the nation's largest seller of building materials, has temporarily closed some factories as Australia's housing market slows.

Lumber Sales

Carter Holt Harvey, the biggest lumber maker in Australia and New Zealand, cut its profit forecast for a third time in six months on Oct. 26 after posting a 43 percent slide in third- quarter earnings. The company has fired more than 200 workers at its Australian mills as demand cools.

``Australian timber prices and volumes have fallen due to the residential housing market downturn,'' Chief Executive Peter Springford said.

Consumer spending slowed in the third quarter as fuel prices rose to a record and the economy lost jobs for the first time in a year. Retail sales declined 0.3 percent in September, the biggest drop in five months. Sales rose 0.5 percent in August and fell 0.2 percent in July.

The average price of unleaded gasoline in Sydney, the nation's most populous city, surged about 20 percent it the third quarter, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.

``Economic growth should remain mediocre over the near term, with housing construction still a negative,'' Andrew Hanlan, senior economist at Westpac Banking Corp., said in Sydney. ``Rising petrol prices and the housing downturn have capped consumer spending.''

Department Stores

David Jones, Australia's second-largest department store chain, said last month that quarterly sales declined 3.1 percent as fuel costs damped demand for furniture, televisions and major appliances. Sales in the 13 weeks ended Oct. 29 dropped to A$405 million.

Coles Myer, Australia's biggest retailer, said quarterly sales growth slowed as rising fuel prices crimped spending at its Kmart and Target discount department stores.

Sales rose just 5.6 percent to A$9 billion in the 13 weeks ended Oct. 30, Melbourne-based Coles Myer said on Nov. 10. Sales rose 21 percent in the same period a year earlier.

Declining business inventories probably subtracted 0.1 percentage points from quarterly growth, according to the survey of economists. Companies may be running down stocks as consumer demand slows, economists said.

Driving economic growth, business investment climbed 2.9 percent in the third quarter, the government said on Dec. 1.

Iron Ore

Exporters are expanding mines to meet surging Chinese and global demand for raw materials such as iron ore, coal, copper and alumina. Commodities make up almost 60 percent of Australia's export earnings.

BHP Billiton, the world's largest miner, said on Oct. 27 that iron ore production in the three months ended Sept. 30 climbed 5 percent after it expanded mines and transport facilities in Western Australia. Copper and nickel production increased to records in the quarter.

The Melbourne-based company is spending $11.9 billion through to 2010 on mines, transport and other projects to increase production.

``The economies around the world were doing a little better than we had expected,'' Charles `Chip' Goodyear, chief executive of Melbourne-based BHP Billiton, told reporters last month.

``China continues to look quite strong on an overall basis. The resources market continues to be generally in a situation of undersupply.''

Canada Dollar Rises for a Third Week on Rising Rate Speculation

Canada's dollar rose for a third straight week as investors increased bets on how much the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates as government reports showed the economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip and unemployment was the lowest in 30 years.

Investors are anticipating the central bank will follow through with its promise to keep lifting rates to contain inflation. The currency also benefited from demand by international purchasers of Canadian companies and rising commodity prices. Oil, natural gas and other commodities account for 35 percent of Canada's exports. Gas prices surged 20 percent this week.

``The labor report, mergers and acquisitions and natural gas -- that's what has taken'' Canada's dollar higher, said T.J. Marta, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. ``We could definitely test'' the recent high, he said.

Canada's dollar advanced to 86.02 U.S. cents, near the highest in two months, at 5 p.m. yesterday in Toronto, from 85.52 cents a week earlier. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.1626. The Canadian dollar rose to a 13-year high of 86.26 U.S. cents on Sept. 30, and has gained 3.4 percent this year.

Businesses created 30,600 jobs, Statistics Canada reported yesterday, more than the 20,000 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, and the 6.4 percent jobless rate is the lowest since at least 1976. Canada is the world's eighth-largest economy.

``The unemployment rate at 6.4 percent, that's not going to be lost on the Bank of Canada -- that's below any reasonable measure of full employment,'' said Marc Levesque, the chief foreign exchange and fixed income strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

Full Steam

Canada's economic growth accelerated at a 3.6 percent annualized rate in the third quarter and the current account surplus was the third largest on record. The central bank raised its benchmark overnight lending rate a quarter percentage point to 3 percent on Oct. 18, and said rates would rise further in an effort to contain inflation.

``The Bank of Canada says the economy is at full capacity and this week's GDP report showed us growing above potential,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Toronto. ``And now the unemployment rate is drifting down, which means that the prospect for a longer tightening phase by the bank or even a more aggressive tightening, increases in probability.''

Gregory said Canada's currency could appreciate to 86.96 U.S. cents of C$1.15 in the next one to two months.

`Tremendous Potential'

``The potential for Canadian dollar buying is just tremendous,'' Marta said, who calculates that there were $10 billion of mergers and acquisitions announced in November and $15 billion schedule for completion during this month.

Foreign purchases of Canadian companies support the Canadian dollar's value as the acquirers buy the currency to pay for the transactions. Canadian natural resource producers have been a particular target for foreign buyers.

Oil and other commodities account for a third of Canadian exports and 10 percent of the C$1 trillion economy. The Canadian dollar has moved in the same direction as commodity prices, approximated by movements in the CRB index, about 77 percent of the time in the past six months, according to Bloomberg data.

At the same time, ``we are starting to see natural gas poke its head up after being in the doldrums,'' Marta said. Earlier this week gas fell back to the lowest since mid-September.

The bank next meets on Dec. 6 to set its policy rate. Yields on interest-rate futures contracts indicate traders expect the Bank of Canada will continue to raise its rate in quarter percentage point increments. The March futures yield rose 24 basis points or 0.24 percentage point in November to 3.93 percent.

Futures and Bonds

Traders use futures contracts as a gauge of expectations for the Bank of Canada's benchmark rate. Bankers' acceptances settle at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 16 basis points above the central bank's rate target since Bloomberg started tracking the gap in 1992.

Seventeen of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News yesterday said they expect the bank to raise the overnight rate to 3.25 percent next week. Fifteen of that group expect another quarter percentage point increase at the bank's Jan. 24 meeting and 12 are calling for a third increase on March 7.

Canada's two-year bond declined for the seventh week in eight. The 2.75 percent bond maturing in December 2007 fell 17 cents to C$98.03. The yield rose 10 basis points to 3.79 percent, near the highest in two and a half years. The benchmark 10-year bond's yield rose 7 basis points to 4.08 percent and the price of the 4.5 percent security maturing in June 2015 fell 57 cents to C$103.26. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

Two-year yields rose 17 basis points in November, and increased almost a percentage point since mid-year. Ten-year yields by contrast fell 10 basis points last month.

The combination of rising short-term and falling longer-term yields produced a 0.96 percent return for investors in the Canadian bond market, including reinvested interest, after two straight monthly declines, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. U.S. Treasury debt gained 0.5 percent in November.

Japan's Bonds End Three-Week Rally on Surge in Nikkei Average

Japan's 10-year government bonds halted a three-week rise as the benchmark stock index advanced to the highest since October 2000.

Ten-year bonds delivered investors a loss in the week as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 4.3 percent on reports suggesting exports will support growth in Japan's economy. Bond futures yesterday had the biggest drop in a month after the triggering of pre-set sell orders that traders use to guard against further losses.

``Investors could not help but sell bond futures as stocks showed such strength,'' said Nobuo Tamamizu at Sompo Japan Insurance Inc., the nation's third-largest casualty insurer. The company holds the equivalent of about $42 billion in assets. ``We cannot ignore signs of economic recovery and bonds fell, because of it. Bonds may trim gains in the next several months.''

Benchmark 10-year bond yields rose 7 basis points this week to 1.505 percent in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest debt broker. The price of the 1.5 percent bond due December 2015 ended the week at 99.956. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Ten-year bond futures for December delivery yesterday fell 0.50, the steepest decline since Nov. 4, to 137.75 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Yields on five-year bonds rose 4 basis points to 0.785 percent.

The Nikkei gained as much as 1.9 percent yesterday, headed for the longest run of annual gains in a decade. The average on Dec. 1 closed above 15,000 for the first time since December 2000.

`Surprise'

Demand for bonds fell after a U.S. government report showed the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefit declined last week. Japan's exports, which accounted for a third of the economy's 2004 growth, rose 8 percent in October. The U.S. is the nation's biggest market for overseas goods.

Ten-year yields may gain to 1.63 percent in the next several months, Tamamizu said. He declined to comment on his investment.

``I was quite surprised by how much bonds were sold,'' said Shinji Kunibe, a fund manager at the local unit of J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management, which oversees $305 billion in assets. ``A rally in stocks forced major holders of bond futures to reduce their holdings, which led others to sell.''

Kunibe said he is keeping the average duration of his debt holdings slightly shorter than the benchmark index against which he measures performance. Duration measures sensitivity to changes in interest rates, and the longer an investment's duration, the more it stands to gain when yields fall.

Ten-year yields may touch 1.63 percent in the next several months, Kunibe said.

Sell Orders

December bond futures yesterday dropped to as low as 137.66 after pre-set sell orders to limit losses were triggered at about 138, said Takafumi Yamawaki, a fixed-income strategist in Tokyo at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd., one of 27 primary dealers that discuss bond sales with the Ministry of Finance.

The slide stalled as comments by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto restored confidence that the central bank will keep interest-rates at near zero after it changes policy.

``Even after the end of quantitative easing, we'll probably maintain zero-rates,'' Muto said in a speech in Tokyo. Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, will rise a little toward the year end and show a rising trend after that, he said.

The bank is pursuing a policy, known as ``quantitative easing,'' of pumping money into the economy and keeping rates near zero to help overcome more than seven years of deflation.

Government Pressure

``I had expected Muto was more likely to give into government pressure,'' said Tetsuya Miura, a strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo, another primary dealer. ``Investors took his comments as a reason to buy bonds.''

Japan's government called on the central bank to adopt an inflation target once it ends its quantitative easing policy, the Yomiuri newspaper yesterday said, citing a Cabinet Office report.

In a report titled ``Japan's Economy 2005-2006,'' the Cabinet Office said adopting such a plan would stabilize financial markets and prevent unwanted volatility, the Yomiuri said. The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates near zero since March 2001.

``It will take a while before the central bank has a free hand on monetary policy,'' said Akihiko Inoue, a market analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Investors Securities Co., a brokerage unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ``Speculation the central bank will stop pouring cash into the economy is receding because of the government's opposition.''

Bond Bears

Akitsugu Bandou, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Okasan Securities Co., said bonds are unlikely to recover from this week's losses anytime soon.

``I expect bonds to stay weak,'' said Bandou, whose firm is also one of the 27 primary dealers. ``The gain in stocks will reduce bond demand. Growth in the U.S. economy is positive for Japan.''

Overseas investors sold 101.8 billion yen ($844 million) more Japanese bonds than they bought in the week ended Nov. 26, the first period in over a month that sales exceeded purchases, Ministry of Finance figures showed on Dec. 1. They bought 134.3 billion yen more Japanese shares than they sold in the week, extending a nine-week buying spree by international money managers.

G-7 Central Bankers Pledge Not to Hurt Growth

Central bankers from the world's richest nations sought to defuse criticism from finance ministers that they risk imperiling economic growth by raising interest rates.

European Central Bank council members Christian Noyer, Axel Weber and Klaus Liebscher said their decision yesterday to raise the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2.25 percent won't hurt the economy of the dozen nations which share the euro and that they're not planning a series of increases. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto said its rates would also stay low.

``We don't have anything else in our pocket for now,'' Noyer, who is also Bank of France Governor, told Europe 1 radio today. ``It's not forecast that it's the beginning of a cycle.''

Policy makers from the Group of Seven industrial countries are convening in London to assess the outlook for the world economy as JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts 2006 will be the first year in six when the three biggest central banks lift interest rates simultaneously. The G-7 accounts for two-thirds of global gross domestic product.

Muto said today in Tokyo that Japanese rates will probably be kept near zero even if the BOJ carries out its prediction that it will next year change its strategy of pumping cash into its economy to combat deflation. ``Even after the end of quantitative easing, we'll probably maintain zero-rates,'' Muto said.

Breton's Welcome

Finance ministers welcomed the commitment by central bankers to preserve economic growth. France's Thierry Breton said it was ``very important that the ECB has indicated it's not the start of a cycle which could have tough consequences for growth.'' Breton said Nov. 29 higher rates were not ``legitimate to fight inflation which doesn't exist.''

``We never clash, we only discuss,'' he said today of central bankers and ministers.

Luxembourg Prime and Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who attends G-7 meetings as chairman of the group of euro-region finance ministers, also said today he wouldn't repeat his previous criticism of the ECB. ``At some stage you have to stop the debate,'' he said.

The G-7 central bankers found support from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. They are ``taking action to prevent the global recurrence of global inflation,'' Brown told a conference in London. ``The doubling of oil prices has threatened global inflation and every advanced industrial country is taking measures against it.''

Counterproductive Pressure

Paul de Grauwe, a former Belgian candidate for an ECB board seat, said prodding from lawmakers may backfire if central bankers seek to prove their independence by raising rates. ``It's probably best for politicians to shut up,'' said de Grauwe, a professor at the Catholic University of Leuven. ``Putting pressure on central bankers is typically counterproductive.''

``Everyone knows we are independent and I am very grateful to Jean-Claude Juncker for defending our independence,'' ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said today in Luxembourg. ``Yesterday's decision was a good decision.''

BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui told reporters that there was no split between Japan's central bank and government. Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Nov. 25 it's too early for the BOJ to change policy because ``mild deflation still persists.''

``I don't think there is a big gap of views on monetary policy between the government and our bank,'' Fukui said. ``The central bank and the government share the goal of achieving a sustainable economic expansion.''

Best Defense

The best defense for central bankers may be success in restraining inflation without hurting growth, Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson said in an interview. He advised European and Asian policy makers to learn from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

On Greenspan's watch, the personal consumption expenditure measure of U.S. inflation excluding energy and food prices fell to an average of 1.7 percent since 1995 compared with 3.6 percent in the previous decade. Still, the economy grew around 180 percent since 1986 in purchasing power parity terms and suffered just five quarters of contraction, eclipsing the performance of every other G-7 nation.

``What made Greenspan such a great central banker was his ability to balance growth and inflation,'' said Samuelson, a professor of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Fed Actions

The Fed has increased rates 12 straight times since June 2004 and 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect it to do so again on Dec. 13, lifting borrowing costs to 4.25 percent.

Greenspan was today feted at his 55th and final G-7 meeting before his Jan. 31 retirement. In that timeframe the other G-7 members have had 23 central bankers. ``Greenspan is the first central banker to become a household name across every continent,'' Brown said.

The Fed chairman said in a videotaped speech shown at a Philadelphia Fed bank conference today that U.S. ``economic activity appears to be expanding at a reasonably good pace as we head into 2006.'' In a later speech in London, he said a ``pernicious drift toward fiscal instability'' could result in a ``painful'' adjustment of the record U.S. current account deficit.

The G-7 officials conclude their talks tomorrow with press conferences and a joint statement.

Greenspan Says Budget Gap May Have `Severe' Effects

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of the damaging consequences of widening budget deficits on U.S. growth in two speeches today even as he said the economy is currently expanding ``at a reasonably good pace.''

Rising retirement and medical costs are major threats that loom over a ``positive'' outlook for the economy, Greenspan said in a videotaped speech shown at a Philadelphia conference today. In a second speech in London, Greenspan said a ``pernicious drift toward fiscal instability'' may lead to a ``painful'' adjustment of the record deficit in the current account, the widest measure of trade.

Today's speeches are among the final opportunities for Greenspan, 79, to discuss two favorite topics: the U.S. deficits in the budget and the current account. Greenspan retires Jan. 31. His comments suggest the budget deficit is the greater risk while the trade and investment gap may ease in time if the U.S. economy stays flexible and attractive to overseas investment.

``Crafting a budget strategy that meets the nation's longer- run needs will become more difficult the more we delay,'' Greenspan said in his Philadelphia remarks. ``In the end, the consequences for the U.S. economy of doing nothing could be severe.''

The Fed chairman said the U.S. economy ``has delivered a solid performance thus far in 2005.'' Even after the disruptions from the hurricanes, ``economic activity appears to be expanding at a reasonably good pace as we head into 2006.''

Economic Reports

Greenspan said future economic growth will be determined in part by the state of the budget, including meeting the demands of the Social Security retirement system and rising costs for government health care programs.

In neither speech did Greenspan discuss in detail the current state of the economy, which added 215,000 jobs in November, the biggest gain since July. Fed officials meet Dec. 13, and all 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the benchmark interest rate to be raised by a quarter percentage point for a 13th straight meeting. The economy grew at a 4.3 percent annual rate from July to September, the quickest pace since the first quarter of last year, the Commerce Department said this week.

Treasury Secretary John Snow said the next federal budget would take a strict approach to so-called discretionary spending, or programs that Congress must approve each year.

``It is going to be a tough-minded, stringent budget,'' Snow said in an interview with CNBC. ``It is going to go after discretionary spending hard.''

Retirement and healthcare usually don't fall into that category of spending because they are considered to be ``entitlements.''

Budget Gap

The deficit narrowed by $94 billion in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 to $318.6 billion. President George W. Bush has pledged to cut the deficit to the equivalent of about 2.25 percent of the economy by 2009 after tax cuts and spending increases pushed the gap to 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, or a record $412.8 billion, a year earlier.

Economists at Goldman Sachs & Co. and Lehman Brothers Inc. say rising federal spending and slower growth in tax receipts may wipe out most or all of last year's improvement in the deficit. Lehman's Drew Matus predicts the deficit will rise to $425 billion in the current fiscal year.

The Fed chairman didn't comment on interest rates or inflation in either speech.

Greenspan will retire after the Fed's January rate-setting meeting, when his non-renewable term on the Board of Governors ends. His successor, White House economic adviser Ben Bernanke, told Congress last month that he doesn't intend to comment on specific budget issues.

Investment Theories

In his London speech today, Greenspan refined his theories on how a rising tendency by governments, individuals and corporations to invest beyond their borders is helping America finance growing debt. That may also explain why the trade and investment deficit hasn't pushed the dollar lower so far, he noted.

``The reason the historically large U.S. current-account deficit has not been placing persistent pressure on the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, at least to date, is that the deficit is a reflection of far broader and long-standing financial development in the United States and elsewhere,'' Greenspan said.

Those developments include the freer flow of money worldwide and a rising preference by investors to direct their money overseas. Greenspan said this reduction in ``home bias'' by investors has channeled more money to the U.S. and helped the country to finance its current-account deficit.

Current Account

Roger Kubarych, senior economic adviser at HVB America Inc. in New York said the current-account deficit, which was equal to 6.3 percent of the economy in the second quarter, is ``high for the U.S. and by any country's standards.'' He spoke in an interview. Greenspan suggested the deficit may gradually ease.

Greenspan saved his harshest comments for the budget deficit and said spending cuts, not tax increases, are the best way to close the gap.

``Tax increases of sufficient dimension to deal with our looming fiscal problems arguably pose significant risks to economic growth,'' he said. Such risks are ``sufficiently worrisome to warrant aiming, if at all possible,'' to use mainly spending cuts to close the gap.

Greenspan cited projections from the White House Office of Management and Budget that spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will rise to 9.5 percent of the economy in 2015 and about 13 percent in 2030 from 8 percent in the current fiscal year. If healthcare costs outpace economic growth, ``they will exert budget pressures that seem increasingly likely to make current fiscal policy unsustainable,'' he said.

Healthcare Costs

``The soaring cost of medical care for an aging population is certain to place enormous demands on our nation's resources and to exert pressure on the budget that economic growth alone is unlikely to eliminate,'' Greenspan said. Such deficits will ``cast an ever- larger shadow over the growth of living standards.''

The Fed chairman said rules that automatically limit spending, deal with ``unanticipated budget outcomes'' and let Congress regularly assess the cost of programs may help narrow the budget deficit.

The current account, Greenspan's other topic today, is the broadest measure of trade because it includes income from investments and transfer payments. The gap last year widened to a record $665.9 billion from $530.7 billion and totaled $195.7 billion in the second quarter.

The U.S. finances the current-account deficit by borrowing from overseas. Although yields on U.S. Treasury notes are less than 1 percentage point above annual inflation, foreign investors continue to buy U.S. assets.

``Most policy makers marvel at the seeming ease with which the United States continues to finance its current-account deficit,'' Greenspan said in London. ``At some point, foreign investors will balk at a growing concentration of claims against U.S. residents, even if rates of return on investment in the United States remain competitively high.''

The Fed chairman suggested it is difficult to predict when that will occur because ``globalization is changing many of our economic guideposts.''

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Ведущий рассылки - Гендельф Николай Рудольфович, управляющий FX Global Hedge Fund
Обзор рынка подготовлен Товстановским Владимиром Александровичем, главным управляющим FX Global Hedge Fund